IPCC Assessment Report 5: The Physical Science Basis (Working Group I) - Annex I: Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Projections

Content Type: 
Curated Content
Author or Institution as Author: 
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh (Netherlands)
Co-authors: 

Matthew Collins (UK), Julie Arblaster (Australia), Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen (Denmark), Jochem Marotzke (Germany), Scott B. Power (Australia), Markku Rummukainen (Sweden), Tianjun Zhou (China)

Funding Partner: 
Date of publication: 
January, 2019
Institution: 
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Language: 
Gender marker: 
Youth marker: 
Description/Abstract: 

This Annex presents a series of figures showing global and regional patterns of climate change computed from global climate model output gathered as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5; Taylor et al., 2012). Maps of surface air temperature change and relative precipitation change (i.e., change expressed as a percentage of mean precipitation) in different seasons are presented for the globe and for a number of different sub-continental-scale regions. Twenty-year average changes for the near term (2016–2035), for the mid term (2046–2065) and for the long term (2081–2100) are given, relative to a reference period of 1986–2005. Time series for temperature and relative precipitation changes are shown for global land and sea averages, the 26 sub-continental SREX (IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation) regions (IPCC, 2012) augmented with polar regions and the Caribbean, two Indian Ocean and three Pacific Ocean regions. In total this Annex gives projections for 35 regions, 2 variables and 2 seasons. The projections are made under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, which are introduced in Chapter 1 with more technical detail given in Section 12.3 (also note the discussion of near-term biases in Sections 11.3.5.1 and 11.3.6.1). Maps are shown only for the RCP4.5 scenario; however, the time series presented show how the area-average response varies among the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Spatial maps for the other RCP scenarios and additional seasons are presented in the Annex I Supplementary Material. Figures AI.1 and AI.2 give a graphical explanation of aspects of both the time series plots and the spatial maps. While some of the background to the information presented is given here, discussion of the maps and time series, as well as important additional background, is provided in Chapters 9, 11, 12 and 14. Figure captions on each page of the Atlas reference the specific sub-sections in the report relevant to the regions considered on that page.

Keywords: 
Climate Change Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report AR5 Global Warming Atlas Map Climate Projection
Contact name (for further information): 
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh (Netherlands)
Contact institution (for further information): 
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Citation: 

IPCC, 2013: Annex I: Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Projections [van Oldenborgh, G.J., M. Collins, J. Arblaster, J.H. Christensen, J. Marotzke, S.B. Power, M. Rummukainen and T. Zhou (eds.)]. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

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